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Emerging Climate Trends

The science behind a changing climate, how it might affect the snow industry, and how shifting weather patterns increase unpredictability of extreme weather.

By Frank Lombardo
From the PLOW August 2024 Issue

 

After an exhausting workday, the last thing we want to hear is that our entire industry and way of life are being upended by climate change. Whenever I address this subject, I proceed with caution. As it is a highly controversial topic.

Global warming first emerged as an environmental concern in the 1970’s but has quickly transformed into a polarizing political issue. I even avoid discussing this topic in my own household. So, let’s remove politics from our conversation. This article focuses on the science behind a changing climate, how it might be affecting the industry, and the shifting global weather patterns that increase unpredictability of extreme weather events.

Climate Change Is Normal

Decisions made on how we adapt to this new environment will greatly influence our future economic success. Weather is tightly weaved into the daily operations of both Green and Snow Industries. The variability of day-to-day or weekly weather conditions when averaged over time forms the statistical basis of Climate. The natural changes that occur in climate averages are considered Climate Change.

This article focuses on the science behind a changing climate, how it might be affecting the industry, and the shifting global weather patterns that increase unpredictability of extreme weather events.

Historically, climate has evolved due to many factors present at specific times. The dust storms and droughts of the 30’s and early 60’s starved the farming and agricultural industry of water. In the decades that followed, the trend reversed, and climate became wetter than normal — a pattern that has now persisted for over 50 years in many areas.

The lean snow years of the 20’s and 30’s was followed by decades of heavier snow. A swing back to lighter snow in the early 70’s and yet another reversal back to blizzard conditions of the 90’s then occurred.

To help differentiate between weather patterns being related to climate change or just normal swings associated with Winter or Summer seasons, I have evaluated thousands of weather records across the U.S. Some of what I’ve come across validates what I am hearing from those in both the Snow and Green Industries. Other data, however, refutes the patterns many believe are affecting our industry, and instead point to normal ups and downs in weather cycles.

Emerging Climate Trends

Rising Temperatures

Globally, the rise in temperatures over the past century, specifically within the last few decades, has affected our industries the most. This warming has fueled record heat, intense tropical storms, unusually warm sea surface temperatures, growing seasons becoming longer, shrinking snow seasons, and wildfire destruction.

The rising trend in Winter temperatures (Dec-Feb) over the last 100 years has been most prevalent east of the Mississippi. In the past 10 years, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Montreal have each seen five to six of their warmest years in the past century.

Statistically, only one should have occurred. Meanwhile a few isolated pockets across the US, like portions of the Rockies, have shown a slight cooling trend. This has produced a higher volume of year-to-year snowfall in the east, more mixed events, wetter snow in the Midwest and Northern Plains, and a slight increase in snow in some areas of the Rockies.

Shorter Winters

Warming temperatures during Winter and Summer seasons are transforming the turf and plow industries, as evidenced by the northward shift in the USDA plant hardiness zones last year. The Winter season has been shrinking in nearly every North American market. The number of days between the first Fall frost and the last Spring frost has been declining since the 90’s. The average increase in growing days across the country is about 15 since 1970.  However, some markets across Mid-Atlantic and New England states have seen their growing seasons increase by nearly 30 days. This shift means we are now cutting grass well into November.  A decade ago, we were plowing snow during that same time.

Warming has also squeezed Winter weather into fewer days. This change is most notable in the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Great Plains. As Winter temperatures rise, it becomes more difficult to produce snow and whatever snow does occur doesn’t last long on the ground. This reduces the amount of deicing service calls that typically occur following a winter snowstorm.

 

While favorable conditions can still exist further south during the heart of Winter, the frequency will undoubtedly decrease over the next few decades, affecting how we price and operate in those areas. In February of 2021, as a result of a severe outbreak of Arctic air, the record-breaking “Texas Freeze” became the year’s first billion-dollar loss event. It caused weeks of power outages, 200+ fatalities, and the loss of thousands of landscape plants.

In regions such as the Northern Plains, Rockies, New England, and the Great Lakes, there has been a significant increase in the year-to-year variability in snowfall. Over the past two Winters, Minneapolis has seen a swing from one of the snowiest Winters to one of its leanest. Warmer temperatures hold more moisture, which can end up producing bigger storms if it is cold enough to snow. In those northern markets, this dynamic has helped sustain snowy seasons more frequently than other areas.

When using a 30-year snowfall average, a season will only reach or exceed average snowfall approximately once every three years. In the future, snow contractors should begin to consider adjustments to seasonal contracts based on 10- or 15-year averages.

An option is to provide a seasonal contract with both a floor and cap. Make sure the floor is set high enough to cover expenses in a lean year without overcharging clients. The cap is set so you get paid for the extra work necessary in a more robust snow season.

Hotter Summers

Summer readings exceeding 90°F have become more frequent. This Summer, the US has seen temperatures topping triple digits in many states with new record highs recorded as far north as Maine. The excessive heat is affecting irrigation demand and plant production. There has also been an increase in forest fire threats. The increase in evaporation causing dry weather has heightened the amount of fuel available to produce forest fires. This was exemplified by the record-breaking Canadian forest fires in 2023 that wiped out nearly 5% of Canada’s forests.

 

Warmer temperatures are not just producing bigger snowstorms, but also more rain on average. The rise in summer temperatures is also bringing periods of heavier rain than normal.

One reason for this increase in summer rain can be attributed to a heated, more unstable atmosphere enhancing thunderstorm development.  Another is due to the increased evaporation of warmer ocean waters. The warmer surface temperatures this Summer are already running at a record pace in the tropics and are expected to fuel one of the most active hurricane seasons in many years.

Climate Trends

Predictions

It is my opinion that climate change will remain an increasing concern for the snow management and landscape industries in the near and distant future. The swings from year to year will continue to produce snow in all markets across the U.S. The frequency of bigger storms will decrease in marginal snow markets. I expect that we will see an increase in unpredictability in the type of storms and quantity of snowfalls. In January and February, when ground surfaces are coldest, the chance of accumulations will be greatest.

It’s important for our industry to remain on top of the current weather trends. We need to become more creative and innovative in how we integrate these changes into our day-to-day planning, long term projections, product selections, and operations.

Spring will continue to arrive earlier, as it has done for the past decade. In Summer, the trend of wetter, hotter weather looks like it will continue. The hot spells, when accompanied by even short periods of drought, will have greater impacts on water supplies, turf management, and the risk of brush and forest fires.

As shown, it’s important for our industry to remain on top of the current weather trends. We need to become more creative and innovative in how we integrate these changes into our day-to-day planning, long term projections, product selections, and operations. Climate change is here to stay but so are Winter snowstorms and Summer turf management.

Climate Trends Lombardo is the CEO and Founder of WeatherWorks, a private meteorological consulting firm based in New Jersey. A long-time member of the American Meteorological Society, and a Certified Consulting Meteorologist, Lombardo and his team of 40 meteorologists service well over 100 municipal, state, and federal entities as well as over 4,000 landscape and snow removal contractors across the U.S. and Canada.


Do you have a comment? Share your thoughts in the Comments section below, or send an e-mail to the Editor at jessica@groupc.com.

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